Student Article

Volcanoes, with their unpredictable nature, pose significant challenges for scientists trying to forecast eruptions.

Why are eruptions hard to predict?

Magma, the molten rock beneath the Earth's surface, doesn't always erupt from the volcano's summit. Instead, it can emerge from vents on the volcano's flanks or travel laterally through the subsurface before breaching the surface. This variability complicates the prediction of eruption sites and timings.

What is the new computer model for predicting eruptions?

Researchers at the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences in Potsdam have developed a sophisticated computer model that enhances the accuracy of predicting volcanic eruptions. This multi-disciplinary approach combines physical and statistical analyses to better understand magma behavior and its path of least resistance. The model was tested using historical data from Campi Flegrei, a caldera near Naples, Italy, and successfully forecasted the locations of past vents that were not used to calibrate the model.

How does this new model help?

Dr. Eleonora Rivalta, the lead researcher, highlighted the limitations of traditional methods, which often rely on the assumption that a volcano will behave as it did in the past. Sparse data and changing volcanic dynamics can lead to inaccurate predictions. The new model addresses these challenges by integrating the latest physical understanding of magma movement and comprehensive statistical data from previous eruptions. This advanced method holds promise for improving land-use planning in volcanic regions and forecasting future eruptions with higher certainty. If validated through further testing on other volcanoes, it could significantly enhance our ability to mitigate the risks associated with volcanic activity.

© Jason Goodyer / Our Media