Level 2

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Out of the Cold: The Slow Beginnings of Climate Change Science

By: Dr. Alice Bell
Originally Published in  
HistoryExtra
Illustration showing a polar bear and penguins sit on melting ice while dark smoke fills the sky from factories in the background
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Vocabulary

Coal (noun): A black or brownish-black rock that is burned for energy and is a major source of carbon dioxide emissions.

Global warming (noun): The gradual increase in Earth's average temperature, caused by the buildup of gases like carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Fossil fuels (noun): Natural substances like coal, oil, and natural gas, formed from the remains of ancient plants and animals, used for energy.

In the mid-1800s, scientists began to understand that the Earth's temperature could be affected by the gases in the atmosphere.

The beginning of climate science

Eunice Newton Foote was one of the first to experiment with carbon dioxide and its ability to trap heat. In 1856, she discovered that when she placed carbon dioxide in a glass tube and left it in the sunlight, the gas became much hotter than other gases. She quickly realized that if there was a lot of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, it could raise the Earth's temperature, a concept that would later become known as the greenhouse effect.

Foote's forgotten work

Foote's work was published, but it was quickly forgotten. It wasn't until years later, in 1859, when John Tyndall repeated similar experiments, that the scientific community began to take notice. Tyndall's work laid the groundwork for later discoveries about how certain gases in the atmosphere could trap heat and cause the planet to warm. However, he didn't connect his findings to human activities like burning coal and cutting down trees, which would eventually contribute to global warming.

Svante Arrhenius and the 6°C prediction

Svante Arrhenius, a Swedish scientist, took these ideas even further in the 1890s. He studied the impact of carbon dioxide on Earth's temperature and calculated that a doubling of carbon dioxide could raise the Earth's temperature by as much as 6°C (~10°F). Arrhenius also suggested that humans could cause this increase by burning coal and other fossil fuels. However, he wasn't overly concerned at the time, as the warming seemed like a positive thing for colder regions.

A call for action in the 1930s

Despite initial doubts, scientists continued to study the link between carbon dioxide and global temperatures. In 1938, British engineer Guy Callendar presented a paper to the Royal Meteorological Society, claiming that human emissions of carbon dioxide were already causing global temperatures to rise. However, many scientists dismissed his ideas. It wasn’t until the 1950s, with Charles David Keeling’s groundbreaking work, that climate change started to gain scientific support.

Keeling’s big breakthrough

Keeling’s famous Keeling Curve, which tracks carbon dioxide levels, showed a clear rise in CO₂, offering strong evidence of human influence on the climate. By the 1970s and 1980s, climate change was recognized as a serious issue, with scientists warning of rising temperatures, melting ice caps, and more extreme weather. Today, most climate scientists agree that human activity is the main cause of climate change, and the crisis grows as greenhouse gas emissions continue to soar.

© Dr. Alice Bell / www.historyextra.com